The leaked text of Dobbs, released by Politico weeks ago, shows Justice Alito and the other conservative justices (minus Roberts, of course), overturning Roe v. Wade and Casey. Attacking those cases and returning the abortion issue to the states, Alito says, at various points in the opinion:
“We hold that Roe and Casey must be overruled. The Constitution makes no reference to abortion, and no such right is implicitly protected by any constitutional provision…”
“Roe was egregiously wrong form the start. Its reasoning was exceptionally weak, and the decision has had damaging consequences. And far from bringing about a national settlement of the abortion issue, Roe and Casey have enflamed debate and deepend division. It is time to heed the Constitution and return the issue of abortion to the people’s elected representatives.”
“The inescapable conclusion is that a right to abortion is not only deeply rooted in the nation’s history and traditions. :
“On the contrary, an unbroken tradition of prohibiting abortion on pain of criminal punishment persisted from the earliest days of the common law until 1973.”
“We can only do our job, which is to interpret the law, apply longstanding principles of stare decisis, and decide this case accordingly. We therefore hold that the Constitution does not confer a right to abortion.
“Roe and Casey must be overruled, and the authority to regulate abortion must be returned to the people and their elected representatives.”
Because of what that means, those are very, very big statements. It would mean that red states, if they had the guts, could get rid of abortion in a win that the GOP has been pushing for for decades, a way of getting rid of abortion as many on the right have wanted to since Roe was released and then maintained, if slightly changed, by Casey.
The court, however, has so far not released the actual opinion, with today being another day that cases are released and no Dobbs (the case in which Alito would overturn the current abortion regime) opinion released, though other important cases were, namely on Voter ID and the right to carry a firearm.
Still, the decision to not release an opinion on Dobbs so far, particularly given that the Alito opinion seemed fully formed at the time it was leaked, has left many wondering what is going on.
Namely, the theories currently floating around are if the court has backed down on the issue and found some sort of less controversial “middle way”, if it backed down entirely, or if the court is just waiting to release the Dobbs opinion last so that they can then leave DC before the orgy of rioting and potential violence that will surely follow any change in the abortion regime, a totem for the far left.
Given the threats directed toward the conservative justices voting to overturn the current abortion regime in the leaked opinion, particularly the attempted assassination of Justice Kavanaugh, that last theory seems the most likely, as it would give the court the opportunity to get out of town before anything bad happens, and would mean that the court has not changed its mind on the subject.
If that is indeed the case, the Dobbs opinion will be released on the 30th of June.