We’ve heard much about the red wave that’s predicted for federal seats in 2022, but what about at the state level. As the GOP sweeps back into the halls of power at the federal level, will it also be able to reclaim state seats?
That question might be even more important than the federal question, as while Congress and the White House get all the glory, the state-level policy decisions and legislative actions have a much, much larger effect on most of our lives.
Fortunately, veteran political analyst Ryan James Girdusky wrote a very, very compelling Substack piece arguing that the GOP has an excellent opportunity to win those state races and, depending on the circumstance, retake or solidify its power at the state level in 2022.
Girdusky begins by reminding readers of how well the GOP did at the state level under Obama, a victory of ours that the left still hasn’t recovered from. Speaking on that, he writes:
Before 2010, several states that consistently voted Republican for President were still controlled by Democrats locally, including parts of the Midwest, Deep South, and the Prairie States. The Obama White House years forever changed that.
[…]Working-class whites shifted heavily towards Republicans, and it was enough to give a serious blow to the Democrat Party and rip the gavel from Pelosi’s hands. Those voting trends are still standing, and despite it being over a decade since the 2010 midterm, Democrats have yet to recover from their losses in state legislatures.
As of February 1st, Democrats have 174 fewer State Senate seats and 582 fewer State House/Assembly seats than in 2009.
But past victories aren’t enough, we need new ones. So, can we win? According to Girdusky, yes, though he (at first) gives a somewhat tepid prediction, arguing that “it’s pretty safe odds that we’re looking at a Red Wave this November that will flip both the House and Senate as well as 150 to 200 state legislative sweep. Still, the more important question is ‘could it be more than that?”’
His answer? YES! Based on both how voters are trending toward the GOP and just how awful Brandon and all of his wreck of an administration’s policies are, Girdusky argues that:
“If Republicans can close the gap with Hispanics by 10 points and Democrats see the floor with white-working class voters decline by another 5 to 10 points, we could easily see the number of state legislative seats flipping parties, double.
[…]If this truly is a seismic wave year, Republicans can try to flip legislatures in Connecticut, New Mexico, Maine, Nevada, Minnesota, and Oregon. Yet if the areas mentioned above flip and others that were considered safe Democratic become slightly more competitive, it will show we’ve reached a new phase in the realignment, one that will be here for decades.”
If we play our cards right, we could be ready to pick up hundreds of seats and start flipping states that have turned blue in recent years back to the red, victories that would not only be a thumb in the eye of Joe Biden and his awful party, but would also free the many millions currently suffering under leftist rule within those states.
But winning those victories will mean sticking to a program: we can’t let the RINOs hijack the party and send it into a tailspin of weakness. Rather, we need to maintain opposition to Joe while pushing populist policies that appeal to that common man voter that Girdusky sees as being able to start flipping seats our way.
No more tax cuts for billionaires and mega-corps; pass programs that help families, punish Big Tech, and smash tyrannical bureaucrats like Fauci instead. The GOP has to change, but if it does then things might start going our way “bigly.”